This research considers the international evidence on the functioning and deployment of measures similar to the Irish "Rent Pressure Zone" (RPZ) framework introduced in late 2016. It also considers how these measures have worked in Ireland in the period from their inception until prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 when the maximum allowable rent increase was 4 per cent.

In this paper, we explore the impact of recent interest rate increases on the Irish economy and chart out the potential impact using scenarios for the period 2023- 2025. We use the COSMO macroeconometric model of the Irish economy to test the impacts through credit markets and the real economy, separately modelling the impact on consumer, corporate and mortgage markets. We also use micro data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) to test the impact on mortgage affordability of the interest rate increases. Our scenarios are drawn from the European Banking Authority (EBA) stress tests which provide base and adverse outcomes for the policy rate. These are compared to a pre-Ukraine war baseline. We find notable effects on the mortgage market and house prices as well as sizable impacts on key macroeconomic aggregates such as investment, consumption and output. We also observe an increase in housing payment to income ratios but no major increase in mortgage affordability distress as measured by the residual income approach.

Using micro data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) Household Budget Survey (HBS), we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumption and its implications for indirect tax receipts in 2020. We show that over one-third of household expenditure is on items that are currently restricted due to public health measures such as transport, selected retail expenditure and entertainment items. We parameterise three scenarios which attempt to take into account: 1) a return to a 'new normal' with ongoing physical and social distancing; 2) a 'second wave' lockdown; and 3) rapid vaccine development that allows a return to normal economic and social life by the end of 2020. Under these scenarios, household consumption this year is estimated to be between 12 and 20 per cent lower than what it would have been in the absence of the pandemic. Indirect tax paid by households is estimated to be between 19 and 32 per cent lower than it otherwise would have been.

Numerous research papers have used Irish-only data to test for the presence of an investment gap for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In this paper, we use cross country firm-level survey data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys to explore the investment patterns of Irish SMEs in a crosscountry context and test whether an investment gap is present when compared to other countries. We use an accelerator model of investment which links capital expenditure to firm output growth and test the sensitivity of investment to this key fundamental for Ireland and other countries. We then estimate whether Irish firms face an investment gap relative to their European peers. We test whether any differences in cross country patterns are driven by variation in financial factors (such as credit access or indebtedness) or firm quality (managerial experience, website usage, operating profitability). We find that Ireland's investment in fixed tangible assets is relatively well explained by these factors whereas a clear underinvestment in research and development expenditure emerges. Factors associated with investment in research and development include the degree of foreign technology usage, digitalisation and internationalisation.

The war in Ukraine and the subsequent increase in energy and other commodity prices has dampened the economic outlook. There are increased downside risks to economic activity and there is also considerable uncertainty around any economic projections and how they may evolve in the future. This article uses the ESRI's macro-econometric model COSMO to generate a range of model-based estimates of the potential medium-term impact of the war in Ukraine on the Irish economy. The main shocks to the Irish economy include higher global commodity prices especially for energy and a slowdown in Ireland's main training partners. To capture the impact of the war, the scenario results are compared to a pre-war base. Mild and Severe scenarios are calibrated using commodity price projections from the European Central Bank's December 2022 and March 2023 staff projections. These assumptions regarding energy prices are fed into NIESR's global macroeconomic model, NiGEM, which in turn provides COSMO with projections of key external variables thereby simulating the indirect implications for the Irish economy. The results of our simulations suggest that the domestic economy, as measured by modified domestic demand (MDD), could fall between 1.3 per cent and 3 per cent below the pre-war baseline in the medium term.

Despite the increasingly wide-spread nature of macroprudential regulations, relatively few studies have assessed the implications of such policies on key household finance decisions. In this paper, we investigate the impact on Irish household perceived savings constraints of macroprudential policy measures introduced by the Central Bank of Ireland in early 2015. These measures, which require larger downpayments than previously was the case, constitute a significant new source of uncertainty for those seeking to engage in homeownership. Using a unique, nationally representative survey of households' savings decisions we find that the measures have had a significant impact on the degree to which Irish households feel constrained in their savings decisions. Credit constraints and consumer inattention are proposed as explanatory channels for this development. Heterogeneous effects across households indicate younger, private renting households, and those with relatively uncertain cash flows show the largest increase in perceived constraints following the introduction of the policy.