Rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) for game-playing has inspired intense interest in the possible benefits of the technology for wargames. This report presents an assessment of the limits to applying AI technologies to wargaming.

The U.S. Air Force is increasingly interested in the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance various aspects of warfighting. This project seeks instead to understand the limits of AI for warfighting applications.

Social movement research is becoming increasingly important, as information and communications technologies (ICTs) have altered the ways movements form, organize, mobilize, and act, as well as the ways in which they are surveilled and disrupted. The authors of this report explore the use of agent-based modeling as a method for studying the effects of ICTs on the formation, maintenance, and dissolution of social movements over time. The authors first reviewed selected research on recent technologies and social movements and conducted case studies of the Arab Spring protests in Egypt in 2010, the civil uprising in Syria in 2010, and the Hong Kong protests in 2019. They then developed and tested an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates the role of technology on specific features of social movements. The authors present conclusions from this exploratory research and discuss how to better employ ABMs as a tool for understanding the dynamics of social movements.

Discusses the Pre-Conflict Management Tools (PCMT) computer program, developed to assist intelligence and policy analysts, operational planners, and decisionmakers facing complex strategic problems, particularly as it relates to state failure.

We investigate the multi-faceted role of information technologies in the spread and dynamics of social movements. Specifically, we ask two main questions: 1) how do communication and network technologies impact the number and connectivity of movement participants, and 2) how does more efficient and more accurate surveillance technology impact an authority's ability to learn about the movement. Importantly, our simulation model includes both homophily and social influence, two established tenants of social movements and social relationships more broadly. Our results show that communication technology that increases spontaneous interaction helps to ignite social movements, while improvements in networking technology are more effective at accelerating the growth of social movements in their intermediate stages. However, when agents are allowed to join the movement, outreach is more effective at accelerating the growth of the number of participants. Our results also show that authority can gain highly accurate beliefs simply by observing network links (instead of individual actors) in all but the smallest social movements.

U.S.-China competition, including economic competition, has come to define U.S. foreign policy since 2017. This report, the first of a four-part series, includes economic and institutional analyses of U.S.-China economic competition.

"In this report, several authors explore the concept of undergoverned spaces (UGS) and the concepts, challenges, and prospects for developing new approaches to long-term competition in open-ended or infinite games within the context of UGS. This exploration marks an initial step toward developing a functional perspective on determining whether new approaches to strategy and engagement are warranted, and what the implications of those steps might be regarding the actions considered, the rationale for choosing among those actions, and the ways that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and National Security Enterprise (NSE) organize to perform them. This report is divided into four parts, each presenting different perspectives on the challenges posed by UGS and the opportunities to improve how the United States competes within them."--Back cover.