Deforestation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is significantly lower than in other heavily forested tropical countries. However, there is increasing concern that this rate is likely to accelerate. Many of those concerned about future deforestation argue that shifting cultivation is the primary driver and that if nothing is done to change the practice, it will cause even more forest loss. This study reviews the evidence in support of these claims. In the first section, we compare the results of the most recent remote sensing-based studies on the rate of change in forest cover and try to explain why and how they differ. We then review the literature on the relationship between agriculture and deforestation in the DRC, with particular attention to the role of shifting cultivation. Finally, we integrate the insights from both the remote sensing studies and the broader literature to arrive at a general picture of the current state of the forest in the DRC and the risks for its future. Overall, we find that while there is substantial variation in the recent deforestation estimates for the DRC depending on definitions, methods and approaches, some deforestation is taking place — albeit at a slower rate than in the rest of the tropics. This deforestation is concentrated in Kinshasa and Bas-Congo provinces, in the eastern DRC and around medium-sized cities along the Congo River. Agriculture appears to be the main driver of deforestation and its impact will likely increase as the country’s population grows. While some researchers argue that this presents a real threat to the future of the DRC’s forests, there is a lack of strong evidence to show the magnitude of this threat. If the impact continues to be felt mainly in the areas where it is currently taking place, the overall ensuing deforestation may not be very extensive. While the local impacts may be real, given the vast size of the DRC and the location of its large tracts of forests, there is a strong possibility that the overall biodiversity and carbon impacts of such deforestation will be limited.

The relationship between forests and human nutrition is not yet well understood. A better understanding of this relationship is vital at a time when the majority of new land for agriculture is being cleared from forests. We use Demographic Health Survey data on food consumption for children from 21 African countries and Global Land Cover Facility tree cover data to examine the relationship between tree cover and three key indicators of nutritional quality of children's diets: dietary diversity, fruit and vegetable consumption, and animal source food consumption. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: there is a statistically significant positive relationship between tree cover and dietary diversity; fruit and vegetable consumption increases with tree cover until a peak of 45% tree cover and then declines; and there is no relationship between animal source food consumption and tree cover. Overall our findings suggest that children in Africa who live in areas with more tree cover have more diverse and nutritious diets.

[Shifting cultivation is often blamed as a principal cause of deforestation in tropical Africa. It is claimed that the practice is unsustainable because shortened fallow lengths result in soils too degraded to support forest vegetation. The decline in fallow lengths is often attributed to increases in population density and greater market participation. The conventional wisdom makes several claims that are as yet unsubstantiated. This paper investigates whether there is evidence to support two of these claims in southern Cameroon. First, using both cross-sectional and panel data, I find that there is indeed a robust negative association between fallow lengths and population density in the study area and weaker evidence for a negative relationship between fallow lengths and market participation. Second, a stochastic frontier production function approach is used to investigate the marginal contribution of fallow to output. Results indicate that fallow lengths are not low enough to be affecting yields and therefore do not appear to be resulting in declines in soil fertility. Thus overall, while some of the assumptions of the conventional wisdom appear to be true, there is little evidence to support its dramatic conclusion that shifting cultivators are causing deforestation in the forested region of Cameroon.

Ghana has the lowest under-five mortality rate in West Africa. Understanding why Ghana's child mortality rate is lower than in neighboring countries may offer useful insights for other developing countries that are trying to improve child health. This paper explores whether Ghana's lower mortality rate is mostly a result of greater household wealth, better implementation of national health policies, or more favorable geography. The paper uses micro level data for children under five to examine relative child mortality risk between Ghana and each of its three immediate neighbors -- Burkina Faso, the Ivory Coast and Togo. A Cox proportional hazards model is used to test which of the three 'contenders' -- health policy, wealth or geography -- best explains Ghana's mortality advantage. The results of the analysis indicate that wealth variables are not able to explain any of the child mortality variation between Ghana and its neighbors. Geography and health policy variables each explain about 40% of the mortality gap between Ghana and Burkina Faso. Health policy differences alone are able to explain about 70% of the child mortality gap between Ghana and the Ivory Coast. These results suggest that even poor countries that have been 'cursed' by bad geography can potentially improve development outcomes and save children's lives.