Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

This book is an elementary and practical introduction to probability theory. It differs from other introductory texts in two important respects. First, the per sonal (or subjective) view of probability is adopted throughout. Second, emphasis is placed on how values are assigned to probabilities in practice, i.e. the measurement of probabilities. The personal approach to probability is in many ways more natural than other current formulations, and can also provide a broader view of the subject. It thus has a unifying effect. It has also assumed great importance recently because of the growth of Bayesian Statistics. Personal probability is essential for modern Bayesian methods, and it can be difficult for students who have learnt a different view of probability to adapt to Bayesian thinking. This book has been produced in response to that difficulty, to present a thorough introduction to probability from scratch, and entirely in the personal framework.

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics and Kendall's Library of Statistics The development of modern statistical theory in the past fifty years is reflected in the history of the late Sir Maurice Kenfall's volumes The Advanced Theory of Statistics. The Advanced Theory began life as a two-volume work, and since its first appearance in 1943, has been an indispensable source for the core theory of classical statistics. With Bayesian Inference, the same high standard has been applied to this important and exciting new body of theory.

This updated fifth edition signifies the most extensive rewriting of Sir Maurice Kendall's original work since its first appearance in three volumes in 1958. Known throughout the field as the definitive source book of statistical theory, this edition contains thoroughly revised text and modernized terminology. Chapters five and six, the central chapters on distribution, have been greatly expanded and feature new tables and diagrams to emphasize the relations between different systems. Chapters seven and eight give an updated presentation of probability theory, and chapter nine includes an extensive new treatment of the use of computers in statistics. Other theoretical treatments throughout the book include coverage of important topics in current research such as smoothing, kernel estimators, density estimators, the exponential family, saddlepoint approximations, and fractional and negative movements. In its scope and authority, the fifth edition of Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics constitutes a major achievement of mathematical scholarship and continues to be a vital and timely resource for students and statisticians.

This major revision contains a largely new chapter 7 providing an extensive discussion of the bivariate and multivariate versions of the standard distributions and families. Chapter 16 has been enlarged to cover mulitvariate sampling theory, an updated version of material previously found in the old Volume 3. The previous chapters 7 and 8 have been condensed into a single chapter providing an introduction to statistical inference. Elsewhere, major updates include new material on skewness and kurtosis, hazard rate distributions, the bootstrap, the evaluation of the multivariate normal integral and ratios of quadratic forms. This new edition includes over 200 new references, 40 new exercises and 20 further examples in the main text. In addition, all the text examples have been given titles and these are listed at the front of the book for easier reference.

The development of statistical theory in the past fifty years is faithfully reflected in the history of the late Sir Maurice Kendall’s volumes The Advanced Theory of Statistics. The Advanced Theory began life as a two volume work (Volume 1, 1943; Volume 2, 1946) and grew steadily, as a single authored work until the late fifties. At that point Alan Stuart became involved and the Advanced Theory was rewritten in three volumes. When Keith Ord joined in the early eighties, Volume 3 became the largest and plans were developed to expand it into a series of monographs called the Kendall's Library of Statistics which would devote a book to each of the modern developments in statistics. This series is well on the way with 5 titles in print and a further 7 on the way. A new volume on Bayesian Inference was also commissioned from Tony O'Hagan and published in 1994 as Volume 2B of the Advanced Theory. This Volume 2A is therefore the completely updated Volume 2 - Classical Inference and Relationship. A new author, Steven Arnold, was invited to join Keith Ord and they have between them produced a work of the highest quality. References have been updated and material revised throughout. A new chapter on the linear model and least squares estimation has been added.