Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.

Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas. Ord and Fildes have designed PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or who have an equivalent background. This book introduces both standard and advanced forecasting methods and their underlying models, and also includes general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice. A key strength of the book is its emphasis on real data sets, taken from government and business sources and used in each chapter's examples. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms and the companion website provides easy-to-use Excel macros to support the basic methods. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. Finally, they examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

The development of statistical theory in the past fifty years is faithfully reflected in the history of the late Sir Maurice Kendall’s volumes The Advanced Theory of Statistics. The Advanced Theory began life as a two volume work (Volume 1, 1943; Volume 2, 1946) and grew steadily, as a single authored work until the late fifties. At that point Alan Stuart became involved and the Advanced Theory was rewritten in three volumes. When Keith Ord joined in the early eighties, Volume 3 became the largest and plans were developed to expand it into a series of monographs called the Kendall's Library of Statistics which would devote a book to each of the modern developments in statistics. This series is well on the way with 5 titles in print and a further 7 on the way. A new volume on Bayesian Inference was also commissioned from Tony O'Hagan and published in 1994 as Volume 2B of the Advanced Theory. This Volume 2A is therefore the completely updated Volume 2 - Classical Inference and Relationship. A new author, Steven Arnold, was invited to join Keith Ord and they have between them produced a work of the highest quality. References have been updated and material revised throughout. A new chapter on the linear model and least squares estimation has been added.

Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics and Kendall's Library of Statistics The development of modern statistical theory is reflected in the history of the late Sir Maurice Kenfall's volumes, The Advanced Theory of Statistics. This landmark publication began life as a two-volume work and grew steadily as a single-authored work until the 1950s. In this edition, there is new material on skewness and kurtosis, hazard rate distribution, the bootstrap, the evaluation of the multivariate normal integral and ratios of quadratic forms. It also includes over 200 new references, 40 new exercises, and 20 further examples in the main text.

Providing complete coverage of the latest syllabus requirements and all the SL options, this book is written specifically for Standard Level students by two highly experienced IB Physics teachers and workshop leaders.

Despite advances in modern medicine, the power of plagues to terrify, disrupt and bring huge swings in morbidity and mortality in their wake remains potent. A Geography of Infection explores the spatial mechanisms by which infectious diseases, such as measles and influenza, can develop into epidemics and pandemics.

The development of statistical theory in the past fifty years is faithfully reflected in the history of the late Sir Maurice Kendall’s volumes The Advanced Theory of Statistics. The Advanced Theory began life as a two volume work (Volume 1, 1943; Volume 2, 1946) and grew steadily, as a single authored work until the late fifties. At that point Alan Stuart became involved and the Advanced Theory was rewritten in three volumes. When Keith Ord joined in the early eighties, Volume 3 became the largest and plans were developed to expand it into a series of monographs called the Kendall's Library of Statistics which would devote a book to each of the modern developments in statistics. This series is well on the way with 5 titles in print and a further 7 on the way. A new volume on Bayesian Inference was also commissioned from Tony O'Hagan and published in 1994 as Volume 2B of the Advanced Theory. This Volume 2A is therefore the completely updated Volume 2 - Classical Inference and Relationship. A new author, Steven Arnold, was invited to join Keith Ord and they have between them produced a work of the highest quality. References have been updated and material revised throughout. A new chapter on the linear model and least squares estimation has been added.