This Food Policy Report explains why there is a need to place even higher priority on food security-related policies and programs in conflict-prone countries, and offers insights for policymakers regarding how to do so. To understand the relationship between conflict and food security, this report builds a new conceptual framework of food security and applies it to four case studies on Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. It argues that food security-related policies and programs build resilience to conflict insofar as they are expected not only to help countries and people cope with and recover from conflict but also to contribute to preventing conflicts and support economic development more broadly: by helping countries and people become even better off.

Egypt faces two nutritional challenges. The first is the “growth-nutrition disconnect.” High economic growth has not been accompanied by reduction in chronic child malnutrition, at least throughout the 2000s. Instead, the prevalence of child stunting increased during this decade—an atypical trend for a country outside wartime. The second challenge is the simultaneous presence of chronic undernutrition and overnutrition (due to excess consumption of calories). This “double burden of malnutrition” exists not only at the national level but also within families and even individual children. Both challenges are exceptionally pronounced in Egypt compared to other developing countries. Nutrition and Economic Development: Exploring Egypt’s Exceptionalism and the Role of Food Subsidies examines the two nutritional challenges in depth and their relationship to public policy.

Food and nutrition insecurity is a consequence and a driver of civil conflict. War and civil unrest reduce household incomes and employment opportunities through economic recession; cause losses in people’s purchasing power from price inflation; and restrict food availability, access, and utilization through disruption of infrastructure. In turn, low per capita income and poverty, youth unemployment, and social and economic inequality—often combined with poor governance, population pressure, and rough terrain—are factors driving civil conflict. Recently, food and nutrition insecurity has been identified as another main driver of civil conflict globally and even more so in Arab countries. Specifically, rising international food prices were reported to have significantly increased the incidence of antigovernment demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict in low-income countries in the past.

Food insecurity at the national and household level not only is a consequence of conflict but can also cause and drive conflicts. This paper makes the case for an even higher priority for food security–related policies and programs in conflict-prone countries. Such policies and programs have the potential to build resilience to conflict by not only helping countries and people cope with and recover from conflict, but also contributing to preventing conflicts and supporting economic development more broadly—that is, helping countries and people become even better off. Based on this definition and a new conceptual framework, the paper offers several insights from four case studies on Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. First, conflicts are often related to other shocks such as economic crises, price shocks, and natural disasters. Second, increasing subsidies is a favored policy measure in times of crisis; however, such measures do not qualify as resilience building. Third, climate change adaptation should be an integral part of conflict prevention in part because climate change is expected to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict in the future. Fourth, building price information systems, introducing and expanding credit and insurance markets, geographic targeting of social safety nets, and building functioning and effective institutions are key measures for building resilience to conflict. Finally, the paper points to several important knowledge gaps.

Key Messages • Yemen is experiencing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises resulting from prolonged conflict, with about half the population suffering from food insecurity. • Food availability and affordability in Yemen is extremely vulnerable to external shocks because of the fragility of the national food system and its heavy dependence on food imports by the private sector and international humanitarian agencies. • A recent workshop jointly organized by IFPRI and HSA Group reviewed the state of collaboration between key actors in Yemen’s food system and discussed avenues to building strong cross-sector partnerships for ending the current food crisis and strengthening food system resilience. • Limited collaboration among the public, private, and third sectors (for example, in the form of collective action, multistakeholder partnerships) contributes to inefficiencies in food supply chains and food aid delivery. • Currently, collaborations are often ad hoc, limited to peer-to-peer partnerships, and constrained by a siloed mentality. • With a potential peace agreement, new opportunities for cross sector collaboration and strategic partnerships between food system actors are emerging. • Enhanced communication among the public, private, and third sectors is an important first step toward improving mutual understanding, building trust, exchanging critical information and ideas, and realizing opportunities for effective collective action.

Poor-quality diets are one of the leading causes of malnutrition and common non-communicable disease. In this study, we use nationally representative household survey data and food demand system estimations to analyze dietary change and changing consumer preferences for different foods in the context of urbanization in low- and middle-income countries. We estimate and compare income and price elasticities of total food demand and the demand for 15 food groups in rural, urban, and city areas of Bangladesh for 2010 and 2016. We then use Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition regressions to explore how much of the observed food consumption changes can be explained by changes in revealed consumer preferences vis-à-vis changes in household income and food prices. The results show that Bangladeshi diets shifted from coarse to refined rice, and consumer preferences for vegetables and pulses were relatively low, contributing to worsening dietary quality. On the other hand, the consumption of nutritious, animal-source foods including fish, poultry, and eggs increased due to high consumer preferences and declining food prices-partly thanks to governmental production support. Regarding the dietary implications of rapid urbanization, the analysis suggests that rural consumers’ diets will largely follow the trajectory of urban consumers in Bangladesh.

This paper presents an innovative approach to prioritizing development policy research in Egypt with the specific objective of informing the research agenda of the Egypt Strategy Support Program of the International Food Policy Research Institute. The key steps in this process were: 1) a review of relevant priority setting methods and existing government strategies, 2) pre-selection of research themes, 3) selection of national and international experts, 4) design and conduct priority setting workshop; and 5) priority matrix construction and paper writing.

This 2013 Global Food Policy Report is the third in an annual series that provides an in-depth look at major food policy developments and events. Initiated in response to resurgent interest in food and nutrition security, the series offers a yearly overview of the food policy developments that have contributed to or hindered progress in achieving food and nutrition security. It reviews what happened in food policy and why, examines key challenges and opportunities, shares new evidence and knowledge, and highlights emerging issues.

Food system transformation strategies rely on consumer demand response for achieving sustainable healthy diets, but food consumption patterns and consumer preferences are often not well understood in many countries of the global South. This brief examines consumer demand in Bangladesh, a country in the take-off stage of agrifood system transformation, that has experienced improvements in diet quality but also an increasing incidence of overweight, with faster increases in rural than urban areas. The authors estimate responses in consumer demand to changes in incomes and changes in food prices, finding that rural consumer demand is driven by strong preferences for animal-source foods, while the demand for sugar and highly processed foods increases faster than total food demand when income rises. They conclude that agricultural value chain development can be an important policy instrument for improving household diet quality but can also lead to undesirable dietary change if food consumption incentives conflict with nutritional needs.