The authors describe the challenges and opportunities facing Turkey in the international environment during a time of extraordinary flux. Special emphasis is given to the strategic and security issues facing Turkey, including a number of new issues posed by the terrorist attacks of September 2001 and the subsequent international response. They conclude by offering some prognostications regarding the country's future and their implications on Turkey's western partners.

This volume offers the first detailed statement by a contingent of RAND thinkers on the contours of a redefined Atlantic partnership.

Strains in U.S.-Turkish have grown since the end of the Cold War. Divergences have been particularly visible in policy toward the Middle East. As a result, Turkey is likely to be an increasingly difficult and less predictable partner in the future.

NATO's Eastern agenda faces several challenges, including consolidating the democratic transitions in Central and Eastern Europe, ensuring the security of the Baltic states, developing a post-NATO-enlargement strategy for Ukraine, deepening the Russia-NATO partnership, and engaging the Caucasus and Central Asia. The author also considers NATO's broader transformation.

From the John Holmes Library Collection.

Turkish-Iranian cooperation has visibly intensified in recent years, thanks in part to Turkish energy needs and Iran's vast oil and natural gas resources. However, Turkey and Iran tend to be rivals rather than close partners. While they may share certain economic and security interests, especially regarding the Kurdish issue, their interests are at odds in many areas across the Middle East. Turkey's support for the opposition in Syria, Iran's only true state ally in the Middle East, is one example. Iraq has also become a field of growing competition between Turkey and Iran. Iran's nuclear program has been a source of strain and divergence in U.S.-Turkish relations. However, the differences between the United States and Turkey regarding Iran's nuclear program are largely over tactics, not strategic goals. Turkey's main fear is that Iran's acquisition of nuclear arms could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. This, in turn, could increase pressure on the Turkish government to consider developing its own nuclear weapon capability. U.S. and Turkish interests have become more convergent since the onset of the Syrian crisis. However, while U.S. and Turkish interests in the Middle East closely overlap, they are not identical. Thus, the United States should not expect Turkey to follow its policy toward Iran unconditionally. Turkey has enforced United Nations sanctions against Iran but, given Ankara's close energy ties to Tehran, may be reluctant to undertake the harshest measures against Iran.

Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, Europe must reassess the regional security environment. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation.

On June 26-28, 2005, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy held their sixth annual conference in Gstaad, Switzerland. The conference was devoted to a dialogue on "The Middle East: Changing Strategic Environment." Participants discussed democracy and stability in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Palestine, and Israel; the situation in Iraq; Iran's nuclear program; the roles of the United States, the EU, and the UN Security Council in promoting stability and change in the region; strategies for countering Islamic terrorism; and developments in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.