A monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system is of critical importance for evidence- and outcome-based planning and implementation in agriculture. The availability of and access to timely and reliable data to inform the M&E system is an undeniable asset. Our analysis highlights the use of survey data to generate relevant information and knowledge on the agricultural sector. The Poverty Monitoring Survey carried out in Senegal in 2011 is used to build the economic accounts for agriculture, which identify a value added of 581 billion CFA francs generated by Senegal’s farm households, representing 60 percent of the sector’s value added in 2011. The average farm household generated 646,500 CFA francs from farming in that same year. The information from the economic accounts for agriculture offers valuable inputs for decision-support tools such as the geographical information platforms (e-atlas) and social accounting matrixes used in strategic analyses and agricultural policy planning.

The study developed a results framework to analyze Ethiopia’s progress towards selected CAADP/Malabo, SDGs and Agenda 2063 goals. A Computable General Equilibrium model linked to an income distribution Micro-Simulation model were used to identify priority investment areas for accelerated agricultural growth, poverty and inequality reduction. Simulation results indicate that the current investment trend and composition would leave Ethiopia off-track to meet these objectives. The analysis of alternative agricultural investment scenarios shows that the public sector has still a great role to play in promoting agricultural growth in Ethiopia. Past expenditure levels have been high, though not sufficient, and would need to increase substantially with an emphasis on the quality of public agricultural spending. Productivity remains one of the major challenges but also one of the most effective solutions for accelerated agricultural growth in Ethiopia. Agricultural investments should be designed considering the agricultural value-chain. While social protection programs are important for the poor, rural non-agricultural development could provide a more sustainable source of income.

Groundnuts are the most common cash crop and the main source of income for farmers in Senegal. Previously marginal, groundnut exports surged between 2011 and 2013. This new dynamic motivated the Government of Senegal to introduce a tax on groundnut exports in 2017. Senegal is a price-taker in the international groundnut market. Thus, the ex-ante simulation of the export tax on groundnuts results in a decreasing surplus for groundnut producers, while the surpluses of groundnut processors, the Government, and consumers increase. However, the positive effect on consumers is reversed if the introduction of the export tax is associated with a public investment-led groundnut productivity increase. The tax appears to be biased in favor of the export-oriented groundnut oil industry. Although the groundnut productivity increase mitigates the producers’ loss, it widens the benefit accruing to the groundnut processors. The induced increase of groundnut oil exports and the exchange rate effect exacerbate the producers’ loss. The associated negative income effect exceeds the positive price effect, leading to a decline in consumers’ surplus. Therefore, the introduction of an export tax does not necessarily increase consumers’ surplus in a country with weak market power. The economic structure and the external trade features of the country are as relevant as the fiscal policy decisions associated with the implementation of the trade reform.

The Malabo Agenda on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation has brought technical challengesto the development of agricultural strategiesby expanding the number of commitments and goalsunder the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme.In this paper, we describe and apply an economic modeling framework that wasdeveloped to identify the agricultural investment priority areas for a country and to define milestones to track its progress towards the Malabo goals. The framework consists ofa three-layer simulation model that aimstocapturemultiple Malabo commitments and goals. First, the agricultural productivity analysis uses the stochastic meta-frontier technique to assess opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Second, the economywide analysis uses an agricultural and investment focused computable general equilibrium model to capture the Malabo goalson agricultural growth, intra-Africantrade of agricultural commodities, and public and private agricultural investments.Third, the microeconomic analysis builds upon statistical economic modeling to allow direct measurement and simulation of the Malabo goals on poverty and hunger. The modeling framework is applied to Kenya using the most recent data.TheMalabo Agenda simulation results indicate that Kenya’s current nonagriculture-led growth isnot sufficient to achieving the Malabo overarching goals on poverty and hunger. Agriculture-led growthcomplemented by extendedsocial assistanceis more likely to close the income growth and inequality gaps and contribute to achieving the multiple Malabo commitments and goals by 2025.

The main purpose of this study is to assess the contribution of agricultural investment to the achievement of Côte d'Ivoire's development objectives. More specifically, it aims to analyze the extent to which the implementation of the National Agricultural Investment Programme can contribute to the achievement of the objectives and targets of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union's Agenda 2063. The methodological used combines a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a microsimulation model to assess the impact of agricultural investment options on different outcomes related to the different agendas above. The simulation results indicate that the implementation of the NAIP would enable Côte d'Ivoire to make significant progress and achieve some of the CAADP, SDGs and the African union’s 2063 Agenda’s targets. Thus, the country could achieve investment targets by slightly exceeding the 10% share of public expenditure in total government expenditure and a significant increase in private investment in agriculture. This progress in terms of investment could result in an acceleration of agricultural growth so that Côte d'Ivoire's agricultural GDP would increase at a growth rate above the target of 6% per year. It would also make it possible to achieve several SDGs by 2030, as well as certain targets of the African Union's Agenda 2063. However, despite progress in terms of productivity in some segments of the agricultural value chain, the fight against poverty will remain a major challenge that the country will not be able to meet.

The main objective of this study is to assess the potential contribution of agricultural investment to the achievement of Niger's economic and social development objectives. By combining a computable general equilibrium model and a microeconomic model, it helps to determine to what extent the implementation of the National Agricultural Investment Programme (NAIP) would enable Niger to achieve the objectives and targets of the CAADP, the United Nations’ SDGs and the African Union Agenda 2063. The results indicate that the implementation of the NAIP would enable the country to maintain the share of public agricultural expenditure above the 10% target set by CAADP. All things being equal, this would improve the attractiveness of the agricultural sector and increase both domestic and foreign private investment in the sector. Increased public and private investment could lead to agricultural GDP growth at a rate above the CAADP target of 6%, and to the achievement of several sustainable development goals by 2030 as well as some of the targets of the African Union's Agenda 2063. In particular, Niger could halve poverty by 2030. Similarly, the country could achieve the objective of sustainable growth and the creation of decent employment. However, reducing inequality and eradicating extreme poverty will remain major challenges for the country.

Kenya agricultural development status assessment

South Africa has signed the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and placed poverty and inequality reduction at the forefront of its National Development Plan. This study links a nonparametric income distribution (micro) simulation model and an economywide general equilibrium (macro) model to define the milestones South Africa must meet to halve poverty and end hunger by 2030 as targeted by the SDGs. The current economic growth of 2.0 percent on average annually must be accelerated to 4.5 percent between 2015 and 2030 to achieve the SDGs on poverty and hunger. Although an income growth strategy is important to reduce hunger, an income redistribution strategy of expanding social assistance to cover 10 percent of the population—that is, nearly 7 million persons—appears to be a key to ending hunger by 2030. Rural areas should be targeted for intervention to reduce income inequality. Skilled and high-skilled labor markets offer better employment and earning opportunities in these geographic areas than do the markets for other skill levels. Thus, skill development programs in these areas are likely to contribute to meeting the SDGs on poverty and hunger by 2030.