Uncertainty is a foundational aspect of politics and diplomacy. Critical elections, armed conflicts, ally/adversary behavior, explicit/implicit threats are fundamentally uncertain, yet core processes of statecraft, diplomacy and politics. That's why over centuries, diplomacy has grown into an art form of managing high-risk uncertainties between nations and institutions. Uncertainty isn't trivial, or secondary, since it has direct impact on policy and fortunes of nations through costly miscalculations. Cognitive processes, misperception and elite psychology have thus grown into central themes of inquiry in international relations research through the Cold War and continued to define foreign policy research after the fall of the Berlin Wall. War onset, results of diplomatic negotiations or how people behave during emergencies or crises, are all variables in a three-dimensional equation, determining power relations at the global level.