Water policy is an important topic on the agenda of the international community, and efficiency and equity in the allocation of water have emerged as important factors to be considered. Water pricing can be used to mitigate both the quantity and quality dimensions of water scarcity. This paper reviews partial equilibrium models and general equilibrium models that are relevant to irrigation water management issues. The most widely discussed issues in these models are water markets and water pricing. The interrelationships between economic, cultural, social, and political aspects that are related to water policy make it difficult to provide a comprehensive policy analysis. General equilibrium models of irrigation water management allow incorporation of both the irrigation sector and the other sectors in the economy and analysis of policies affecting each of them and the interaction between them. In addition to being able to address sector and household specifications, production factors, time horizon, pricing policies, and institutions such as water markets, general equilibrium models allow the analysis of the impact of water policies on equity and poverty alleviation. The authors conclude that, although there has been a significant increase in efforts to analyze water related problems, analytical and empirical research in the field is still deficient and more effort is needed to address them.

This technical assistance conducts a climate policy diagnostic for Jordan, covering climate adaptation and mitigation policy, as well as enabling institutions. Jordan faces acute challenges of climate-food-water nexus—innovative climate policy approaches are key, given limited fiscal space. While Jordan needs to strengthen the investment climate for climate investment through streamlining existing policies and alleviating critical barriers, making social policy more shock-responsive and strengthening risk management can go a long way in building resilience. As climate-related risks globally intensify, the government is encouraged to move toward a risk-informed policy and financing strategy.

Effects of climate change in Turkey, which is already a water stressed country, are expected to be significant. The aim of this paper is to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model and a crop water requirement model for the period 2010-2099. Since agriculture is the most important sector that will be affected by climate change, analysis of climate change effects on the overall economy necessitate taking into account backward and forward linkages of agriculture. The CGE model used in this paper models the links between agriculture and other sectors and economic agents at 12 NUTS1 region level. On the other hand, the crop model is used to translate the results of global climate models to estimate changes in yields and irrigation requirements for the period 2010-2099 at 81 NUTS3 level for 35 crops. The results of the crop model are then introduced to CGE model as climate shocks. The results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not be significant until the late 2030s; therefore Turkey has a chance to develop appropriate adaptation policies. However after 2030s, effects of climate change will be significant. Production patterns and relative prices will change drastically. The economic effects will differ among regions. The regions where irrigated agriculture is relatively low, the effects will be milder suggesting a need for putting more emphasis on the region-specific climate change policy design. Agriculture and food production will be the most affected sectors. Increasing irrigation requirements will cause farmers to reduce irrigated production. Combined with the decline in yields, this will cause significant deterioration in agricultural production and prices will increase. The loss in household welfare will be significant. Some part of production decline will be compensated by imports, causing an increase in agrofood trade which will cause the trade balance to worsen with declining manufacturing exports due to increasing cost of production.

Agricultural production is heavily dependent on water availability in Turkey, where half the crop production relies on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture consumes about 75 percent of total water used, which is about 30 percent of renewable water availability. This study analyzes the likely effects of increased competition for water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential impact on the agricultural production and hence on the allocation of factors of production including water. The greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land increases, production on irrigated land declines, most notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are economy-wide simulation tools that can be very useful in answering the policy questions related to closing gender gaps. They allow us to estimate the contributions of gender-inclusive policies, quantify costs and benefits of associated reforms for policy prioritization, identify winners and losers of suggested reforms, and understand transmission channels. They also allow us to estimate distributional and sectoral impact of economy-wide shock such as the containment measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus). This note provides a brief overview of computable general equilibrium model-based analysis in the context of gender-inclusive policies. The purpose of this note is to familiarize non-CGE modelers with this tool and advance discussion on how results derived from it can be used to aid policy dialogue and enhance the design and implementation of gender activities in operations, leading to more gender-inclusive economies and sustainable results for women on the ground. The note covers what the World Bank has been doing on this front, data requirements for such analysis, and how to chart the way forward.

In 1986 the Ðổi Mới reform changed the economic and social policies in Vietnam, triggering steep economic growth and the shift from a low- to a middle-income economy. In parallel to the economic growth, Vietnam also experienced rapid social and demographic change, which resulted in modified consumption behavior. This paper estimates a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, obtaining income and own- and cross-price elasticities for 10 groups of goods and services that can contribute to the further economic development of Vietnam. To control for potential bias generated by unobserved quality substitution and endogenous unit values, the analysis adopts an instrumental variable method. The results show that household equipment, clothing and accessories, telecommunication, transport, and medical and health services are responsive to income changes, while food, foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco, education, and electricity are income inelastic. Moreover, the analysis detects complementarity between education and the rest of the goods and services, and substitution between health care and household equipment, clothing, and telecommunication services. These results help in understanding recent socioeconomic development patterns in Vietnam and provide updated evidence to support business decisions and economic policy planning.

This paper uses computable general equilibrium model-based simulations to assess the gender dimensions of the impact of COVID-19 on economic outcomes, that is, labor force participation, employment, wages, and earnings. It leverages the 2020 High-Frequency Phone Survey in Chad to assess the impact of COVID-19 on female-headed households, which comprise 23 percent of the country's households. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a disproportionately higher negative impact on women in urban areas. The simulation results suggest that more women than men working in paid jobs might lose their jobs. Although the paper focuses on the impact of COVID-19 in 2020, the findings can be generalized as the hysteresis effects might be deeper and more prolonged if the pandemic is more prolonged. The situation is potentially dire, especially in service sectors, where most women are employed in urban areas. Moreover, the High-Frequency Phone Survey shows that COVID-19 has notably impacted the households' income from enterprises and suggests that this negative impact is more prevalent for female-headed households. Although male- and female-headed households are using common coping strategies during the pandemic, female-headed households in rural and urban areas have been more reliant on aid from family and friends and less reliant on savings, credit, or the sale of assets.

Food security represents a key challenge in most Sub-Saharan African countries and in Kenya in particular where still a relevant share of the population lives below a minimum dietary energy consumption. Kenya addresses this concern with a noteworthy policy mix, aiming at giving to the agricultural sector a leading task in improving food security. This paper evaluates the impacts on food security of expanding fertilizer capacities in Kenya, combined with a set of additional policy changes targeting fertilizer use. In a top-down analysis, a specific Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is linked with a microsimulation approach. Scenarios present overall positive effects on key food security aggregates. The same is true for welfare. Nevertheless, the heterogeneity of households across and within regions suggests that improving input productivity through better market access and service extension are critical to reducing possible discrepancies across farmers, households and regions. The paper concludes on the need for a sound policy mix since increasing fertilizer production alone is not enough to enhance food security evenly. Among accompanying measures, intensifying extension services are essential especially for smallholders in their acquisition of better knowledge on the use of agricultural inputs.