The authors consider the time-dependent Schrödinger equation on a Riemannian manifold with a potential that localizes a certain subspace of states close to a fixed submanifold . When the authors scale the potential in the directions normal to by a parameter , the solutions concentrate in an -neighborhood of . This situation occurs for example in quantum wave guides and for the motion of nuclei in electronic potential surfaces in quantum molecular dynamics. The authors derive an effective Schrödinger equation on the submanifold and show that its solutions, suitably lifted to , approximate the solutions of the original equation on up to errors of order at time . Furthermore, the authors prove that the eigenvalues of the corresponding effective Hamiltonian below a certain energy coincide up to errors of order with those of the full Hamiltonian under reasonable conditions.
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Industry is a critical sector for the achievement of European climate goals, in particular specific energy-intensive products/processes (e.g. steel, cement, ethylene, ammonia). A reduction target of over 90% for industry requires a wide variety of reduction options. While the EU Low-Carbon Roadmap 2011 for the industry sector was still limited to energy efficiency, biomass and CCS, the new long-term climate protection strategy includes further options such as electrification, renewable synthetic energy sources, ambitious recycling management, material efficiency along the value chain and innovative manufacturing processes. For many industries, this transition involves fundamental process changes. Against this background, the paper aims to take a closer look at the implications for the individual sectors. In addition, a more in-depth assessment of material efficiency, substitution and recycling measures in the building sector and the use of hydrogen in the chemical and steel sectors is provided. The paper served as a basis for an input to the event "Decarbonizing industry - Energy and CO2 Saving Potentials in the short and longer term" at the EUSEW 2020 (EUSEW 2020) and is based on previous similar works.
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· 2020
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes three approaches for Parties to cooperate in achieving their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). One of these approaches is a new mechanism “to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and support sustainable development” (Art. 6.4(a)). The detailed rules, modalities and procedures (RMP) for the operationalization of this mechanism are currently being negotiated. The aim of this project has been to contribute to the development of the RMP for the new mechanism by analysing a range of design questions: What are options for achieving an overall mitigation of global emissions, as mandated by Art. 6.4(d) of the Paris Agreement? In how far can baselines be established on the basis of best available technology (BAT) values? How can the new mechanism be used to raise the ambition of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as mandated by Art. 6.1 of the Paris Agreement? What role can the voluntary carbon market play in raising ambition? Which incentives can be created for private companies to participate in the new mechanism? What role can Article 6 play on the way towards a (net) zero emissions world? Over the course of the project, these questions and possible solutions were analysed in six working papers. In addition, key findings of the project were discussed in a workshop on 30 October 2018. This report synthesises the findings from the working papers and the workshop and relates them to the status after the negotiations after the climate conference in Madrid in November 2019 (CoP 25).
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Given that the Paris Agreement has strengthened the long-term temperature goal and that it calls for a balance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks within the 21st century, there is the urgent need to re-assess the long-term targets of the EU and to show how the target of GHG neutrality can be reached in the EU. The aim of this study was to design a scenario called “GHGneutral EU2050” as one way to realize a European Union with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions under further sustainability criteria. The scenario shows that a GHG-neutral EU is feasible even without the use of carbon capture and storage and with limited amounts of bioenergy. Key components of the scenario in all energy-consuming sectors (industry, buildings and transport) are a strong increase in energy efficiency as well as far-reaching electrification. These measures can reduce the final energy demand (including international transport) by about 37% and the share of electricity can be increased to almost 50%. In addition, a broad portfolio of other renewable energy options has to be exploited and substantial quantities of renewable fuels are required, which are produced from renewable electricity via electrolysis or based on biomass. Due to unavoidable GHG emissions from agriculture, industrial processes and waste treatment, achieving GHG neutrality also requires lower activity of the agricultural sector and an increased GHG sink from forestry. Besides the detailed quantitative description of a sectoral setup for all GHG-emitting sectors, the study contains a qualitative discussion of the sectoral options to reach GHG-neutrality, cross-sectoral interactions as well as the challenges associated with realizing such a scenario.
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In this article, we present methodology and results of a vulnerability assessment of the energy system of the metropolitan region Bremen-Oldenburg in Northwest Germany. This work is part of the regional climate adaptation project “nordwest2050” aiming at innovative solutions toward a climate-proof and resilient region. Methodologically, we extended the established vulnerability assessment based on climate change impacts by a structural analysis, highlighting general weaknesses of the metropolitan energy system. Our findings indicate that the structural vulnerabilities of the energy system around Bremen-Oldenburg pose a greater threat to maintaining the system's services than climate change itself. Climate-change-based vulnerabilities, however, aggravate many of the structural vulnerabilities and therefore demand attention in their own right. The structural vulnerabilities mainly originate from political and regulatory uncertainties, turbulent market conditions, conflicts along the supply chains, and the current dynamics in the energy sector induced by increased climate mitigation efforts. One of our main conclusions is thus that the metropolitan energy system's capabilities to handle turbulence, perturbations, and surprises must be improved. This will also help in reducing the climate-change vulnerabilities, because such a system is better equipped when facing currently hard-to-predict changes in climate parameters. The results of the assessment described here will be used as the starting point to find options for innovations toward a climate-proof and resilient energy system for the region in the course of the remaining project.
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· 2020
Given that the Paris Agreement (PA) has strengthened the long-term temperature goal and that it calls for a balance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks within the 21st century, there is the urgent need to re-assess the climate targets worldwide. On top of that, the PA stresses that contributions from the states have to reflect “the highest possible ambition” and “respective capabilities”. This study has derived national GHG emissions reduction contributions for 2030 and 2050 that are consistent with the Paris Agreements' long-term temperature goal, both based on fairness and cost-effectiveness approaches. The analysis focuses on countries that are particularly relevant because of their share in global GHG emissions and their role in international climate policy, namely Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan the United States of America, and Germany respectively. The comparison of these approaches yields insights whether or not a country can or should in-crease the ambition of its NDC. The data can also be taken to show how large the efforts in the country domestically should be and to indicate the need for support to or from other countries. The analysis reveals for both approaches, that the more ambitious long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement results in substantially higher reduction requirements for all countries compared to the former Cancun targets.
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This report presents a thorough analysis of drivers for decarbonization in different scenario studies. Selected baseline and emission reduction scenarios from a range of studies on the EU, including some EU member states, were analysed to generate insights into: Which decarbonization strategies exist? Which sectors already show a clear decarbonization strategy? In which sectors is the decarbonization strategy less obvious or clear as significantly different and mutually excluding strategies are researched? Are there sectors where decarbonization is particularly difficult and which are those? What issues have not been addressed in the existing scenarios so far? Besides a generic comparison a decomposition analysis was applied to these scenarios to identify key drivers for changes in emissions in the scenarios. The studies under consideration include at least one ambitious climate protection scenario, and provide a sufficient level of detail with regard to the quantitative results to allow for applying the framework of the analysis. In addition to an analysis of total energy-related CO2 emissions, this study analyses major energy-related sectors on the supply and demand side: electricity supply, industry, tertiary, residential and transport (where possible differentiated by passenger and freight). A comparison of findings and a synthesis along with a detailed data appendix complete the report.
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· 2019
In 2018, the European Commission presented its long-term Strategic Vision “A clean planet for all”, which calls for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of the European Union by 2050. The Strategic Vision is accompanied by the In-depth Analysis containing a detailed impact assessment based on a scenario analysis. This paper presents the findings of an assessment of the In-depth Analysis, in particular its suitability as the analytical input for the Strategic Vision. In summary, the In-depth Analysis covers the key aspects for building an adequate long-term climate strategy and is thus a strong foundation for the Strategic Vision, in spite of certain limitations. The presented pathways to net-zero emissions cover all the relevant sectors and GHGs and are in accordance with other studies. However, they are not fully assessable, because important input and output data are not provided for all scenarios. Moreover, it is unclear why none of the scenarios maximises the use of renewable energies. The variety of models used provides evidence for the economic feasibility of such a transition. In this regard, the restricted set of scenarios used for the macro-economic assessment is a shortcoming. In the scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2050, all sectors have to pursue very ambitious emission reductions early on. Nonetheless, some remaining GHG emissions have to be compensated by a combination of natural and artificial carbon sinks. Detailed considerations of the economic and social implications of the mitigation scenarios show moderate impacts on GDP and labor in comparison to other societal drivers, but also indicate the need for a strong shift from consumption to investment in mitigation technologies and infrastructure. International cooperation is seen as essential to foster the transformation to net-zero GHG emissions.