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    This dissertation is a collection of two essays on the macroeconomic volatility and the Great Moderation. The first essay examines the causes of the Great Moderation in United States, while the second essay takes an international approach in examining if the Great Moderation was one or multiple events for the industrialized countries. The first essay analyzes the causes of the large decline in aggregate volatility for the United States, phenomenon known as the Great Moderation, one of the most widely recognized characteristics of the modern U.S. economy. However, the literature found no consensus on what caused it. In order to uncover the causes of the Great Moderation we use a new measure of volatility based on the first difference of quarterly growth rates, and a novel approach, exploiting a test for common features. We first test each series for structural change(s) in volatility, and then test for a common feature of a decrease in volatility between the volatility of output and volatility of potential causes of the Great Moderation for both the period prior to the Great Recession (2007:4) and the whole sample through 2010:4. When all the evidence is considered, structural changes in the economy, including increased globalization and improved inventory management, improved monetary policy, and good luck, all appear to have played a significant role, while financial market innovations are unlikely to be a cause of the Great Moderation. The second essay analyzes if the Great Moderation is one event internationally, common across countries, or multiple events. The Great Moderation has been identified in several advanced economies as a general decrease in the volatility of GDP growth, and it is still viewed as one time event. We use structural break test to date the onset of the Great Moderation in eleven developed countries and employ the test for common features in order to determine if the moderation in volatility is common across countries (one event), or if it is more than one event. While we establish that all of the countries studied display a break dating from the late 1970s to mid- 1980s and early 1990s, we discover the moderation of volatility evident in international data is neither concurrent, nor of similar magnitude. We can use this new information to enlighten our search for the cause(s) of the Great Moderation by both eliminating potential causes and increasing the ability to distinguish between causality and coincidence.

  • Book cover of Unintended Consequences

    For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction - Newton's Third Law of Motion. While Newton was talking about motion when he developed the above law, it can also be said that for every action or decision there is a consequence: sometimes good, sometimes bad. Many times consequences can be foreseen and planned for. But there are times they are never seen. It is these unforeseen or Unintended Consequences that can have the biggest impact on individual lives. An android working to pass as human. A woman who loses her pre-destined 'soul mate' on world where they were marked at birth. A Queen who uses magic to make her subjects more cooperative and helpful to each other. A wife who authorizes a radical treatment for dementia to be performed on her husband. And 16 more who will learn about the unintended consequences that will affect their lives. Featuring stories by: Lyn McConchie, Alexandria Bellefleur, Michael Picco, Natasha Cage, Catrin Sian Rutland, DJ Tyrer, Dana Bell, Holly Riordan, Chris Dean, Guy Anthony De Marco, Andrew M. Seddon, J.G. Formato, Michael W. Clark, S. D. Matley, Vaughan Stanger, Jean Martin, Edward Ahern, Glen Damien Campbell, Lyn Godfrey, and V. Hartman DiSanto

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  • Book cover of Wellspring

    The Kingdom of Rapture has been splintered by centuries of drought. Nobles now rule from on high, forcing the earthbound peasants to endlessly scavenge for new sources of water. Soon, whispers of a wellspring capable of reviving their parched kingdom begin, and King Certane and his son Joshua, set vile plans in motion to solidify their family's rule for future generations. However, trapping the earthbound Zoe and Gabe into doing his bidding, Joshua seeks a more devious path to his father's throne. It's a race between earthbound and noble to find the wellspring, and shift the balance of power forever.

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    The future is here. In this third volume of the Future Visions Anthology Series, we give you 12 more exciting tales from the most promising sci-fi minds, curated from all over the world. Imagine a better version of you, courtesy of AI... A grieving husband willing to do anything to bring his wife back... A universe where story and reality no longer stay separated. All this, plus a swarm of killer mechanical bees, add up to our most thrilling collection yet, where our writers peer into the future and play prophet to the present. The Future Visions Anthologies will bring you stories like these every three months, and much more. Crack open the pages, the future is waiting... A Century of Faults by Evan Scott Edwards A Lament for Marla by Mike Adamson After All by Bret Carter Another Life by Margery Bayne Elysium by Scott Overton Last Contact by Joseph Aitken New World by Michael W. Clark Pollen by P. R. O'Leary Space Witch by Yolanda Ryle The Man in the Sci-FI Suit by Robert Jeschonek The Removal of Blue Sky by B. A. Paul The Running Mill by Nolan Janssens

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    In the past fifty years, a voluminous literature estimating the value of schools through capitalization in home prices has emerged. Prior research has identified capitalized value using various approaches including discontinuities caused by boundaries. We use changes in school boundaries and the proposal of a new school. Our findings from redistricting in the Fayette county school district (KY) show that prices for homes redistricted from a lower-performing (based on test scores) school into the proposed school catchment area increase by six percent. For houses in higher-performing school catchment areas redistricted to the proposed new school district, there is a smaller increase in value. Houses redistricted from higher-performing schools to lower-performing schools decrease in value by three to five percent. However, many of the redistricted properties see little or no significant change, suggesting that only extreme changes in school quality are capitalized. We estimate that homes in the redistricted areas increased by $108 million relative to homes that were not redistricted.

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