The food systems approach can contribute to food security and reduced malnutrition levels by identifying key investments and policies throughout the food system, including production, processing, marketing, and consumption of food. However, in countries facing fragility and conflict, it has proven difficult to implement such an approach and achieve the desired results. This has been the case in Afghanistan, where high levels of malnutrition stem in part from an undersupply of nutritious food. Multi-sectoral approaches to promote nutrition sensitivity and achieve diet-based solutions have also had only limited impact. This paper reports on an analysis of the nutrition sensitivity of food systems in Afghanistan using multi-sector consultations and gap analyses to examine two key food and nutrition policies, the National Comprehensive Agriculture Development Priority Program and the Afghanistan Food Security and Nutrition Agenda. It highlights gaps in the policies and identifies investment priorities to make food systems more nutrition sensitive. The results show that instilling nutrition sensitivity into the operation of Afghanistan’s food systems can only be accomplished if certain key measures are incorporated into the food system. These include addressing the absence of knowledge in the population regarding healthy diets, the lack of sufficient food for vulnerable populations, weak irrigation systems, capacity constraints at individual and institutional levels, data challenges, and weak natural resource management. In addition, the above weaknesses are compounded by the continued violence and conflict-induced insecurity, weak government, and inadequate investments. Given the role of different sectors in contributing to improved nutrition, appropriate and effective multi-stakeholder coordination and collaboration is paramount to such efforts.

Agriculture, worldwide, has seen remarkable transformation in farming practices, institutional frameworks and policies during the last three decades. Dynamic international markets and the diffusion of bioinformatics technology are shifting farming towards a new organizational model. Production systems are seeking new forms of coordination and control, increasing demand for traceability of origin, and greater integration into international markets. Public research programs are looking beyond mono-cropping systems toward integration of farming, cattle-raising and forestry and whole agriculture innovation system. Global positioning systems (GPS) and computerized agricultural machinery linked via satellites is promoting precision agriculture where inputs are calibrated exactly to the differences in soil and farm activities while farmers are looking for their linkages with output markets for their produce. Commitments to international agreements and conventions regarding biodiversity, climate change, food security, and land use are creating a new bottom line for agricultural practices. This necessitates a new institutional and regulatory framework.

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges confronting our global system today. The scientific community has clearly established that global temperatures are rising and the consequences of climate change may swiftly transition from an environmental risk to an economic threat. Agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable to changes in weather and climatic condition. Over 60% of the yield variability is chalked up to to climate change; significantly affecting food production and farmer income. Changes in climate affect the onset and duration of crop growing cycle, and the extent and duration of heat and water stress impact agriculture production. Moreover, it may trigger pest and disease outbreaks causing significant production losses. Small-scale farmers in rain-fed areas of Pakistan face the severe susceptibility to the challenges brought about by climate change. This vulnerability stems from their heavy dependence on traditional farming methods and their limited ability to adapt, exacerbated by their limited access to advanced technologies and high levels of poverty. Worldwide, crop yields from rainfed farming are approximately 50 percent less than those achieved through irrigated methods. In the absence of adaptation measures to cope with climate change, a potential decline of around 50 percent in rain-fed agricultural yields could potentially occur within the next 30-35 years. Promoting climate smart agricultural practices appears to be a dependable strategy for addressing risks posed by climate change.

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Global agricultural production is undergoing a remarkable shift due to globalization and market liberalization (Setboonsarng et al., 2008). Food markets are transforming from a ‘non-programmed to programmed’ regime stemming from overwhelming changes in demand patterns happening concurrently with variations in production dynamics internationally (Oostendorp, 2018). This presents both the challenge and opportunity to change and adapt to this more structured world to reap benefits for both smallholder farmers and exporters (Setboonsarng et al., 2008).

Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade and international supply chains have also contributed to rising prices having implications for economic and food security for countries like Pakistan. This price shock came at a time when the fragile economy of the country was recovering from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with the threat of climate change (severe heat wave in March-April 2022 and cataclysmic floods in August-September 2022) Price shock has affected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments since Pakistan is a net importer of oil, LNG, edible oil, and now wheat and may impact economic growth in FY2023. In March 2022, per barrel price of oil saw an increase of 59 percent (USD118) as compared to December 2021. It is estimated that ‘as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages on, oil prices will remain above USD100/barrel, even though they are closer to USD90/barrel in October 2022. In 2022, gas prices are expected to increase by at least 50 percent, especially in Europe, where they have increased by more than 2.5 times in the last year due to its heavy dependency on Russian energy’.2 Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022. The CAD increased from USD 3.1 billion in FY2021 to 17.7 billion in FY2022. However, excluding the impact of oil and edible oil, the CAD could have fallen to around USD 7.7 billion. The increase in administered prices of fuel and electricity as well as shortages in wheat production has increased food inflation from 16.6 percent in September 2021 to 28.6 percent in September 2022 (YoY) while the overall CPI increased from 9.0 to 23.2 percent during the same period. Pakistan’s trade volume with Ukraine and Russia has been rising. During the last 24 years, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ukraine was USD 800 million including USD 739 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). Likewise, the trade with Russia was USD 711 million including USD 537 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports).

Rice-wheat, a major cropping system of Pakistan, is vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, manifesting in the form of yield reduction. Among various crops, rice is often identified as the most at-risk food crop which is prone to a substantial drop in yield because of climate change and weather variations. It is estimated that the yield of wheat and rice may decline by 14.7 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively, by 2050 due to changes in climate. It is expected that Pakistan could potentially incur a climate change-related loss of $19.5 billion by 2050 due to reduced wheat and rice crop yields due to water scarcity, rising average temperatures, and less precipitation. Research indicates that if current climate change patterns persist and farmers do not adopt suitable climate resilient methods, rice production in Pakistan could decline by as much as 36 percent by the year 2099.

Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan comprising 44% of the country’s total land mass with a population of 12.34 million (5.9 percent of total population of the country), its southern border of Balochistan makes up two-thirds (770 KM) of the national coastline, giving assess to a large pool of aqua-resources. The province has low population density and provides vast rangeland for goats, sheep, buffaloes, cattle, camels, and other livestock. It is bestowed with natural and locational resources and is the second major supplier of natural gas which supports the country’s industrialization and economic centers. The province also potentially has large deposits of coal, copper, lead, gold, and other minerals. As a frontier province, it is ideally situated for trade with Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf countries, and now with western China through Gwadar Port and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change impacts. Like many developing countries, it is also facing the challenge of dealing with governance of climate change and restructuring associated institutions. It is estimated that the future cost of climate impact would be around $6 billion to $14 billion annually over the next 40 years. Ministry of Climate Change is now focusing in creating necessary infrastructure and platforms for policy decisions and implementation.