"The objective of this study was to examine the way in which decisions are made by highly proficient personnel, under conditions of extreme time pressure, and where the consequences of the decisions could affect lives and property. The domain of firefighting was selected, and the search focused on the decisions made by Fire Ground Commanders (FGCs) who are responsible for allocating personnel and resources at the scene of a fire. The method used included aspects of critical incident and protocol analysis paradigms. Interviews were conducted with 26 experienced fire fighters (mean amount of experience = 23 years). Each interview covered a critical incident that was non-routine and demanded expertise. In this way, the FGCs handled decision points without any need to consider more than one option. A Recognition Primed Decision (RPD) model was synthesized from these data, which emphasized the use of recognition rather than calculation or analysis for rapid decision making. (sdw)" -- Abstract.

This monograph reviews 3 years of research that explores how experienced personnel make decisions in operational settings characterized by real-time information processing, shifting goals, and high-risk consequences. The study combined field studies with experiments designed to test specific hypotheses. Study domains were selected so that findings would have high potential for generalizing to military command-and-control decision making. Researchers carried out critical decision interviews with experienced personnel, including urban fire ground commanders, wildland fire incident commanders, and U.S. Army tank platoon leaders. Interviews were designed to elicit information about the cues, goals, and option evaluation strategies used by these personnel. Based on these interviews, the relationships among such factors as time pressure, experience level, and group interactions were explored. The results of these studies have been used to develop a Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model of decision making. This model contrasts with current normative and prescriptive models of decision making, and the implications of this alternative framework are explored.

This research is part of a series of studies that investigate how decisions are made in operational settings by trained personnel. The focus is on environments in which strategic and tactical decisions must be made under conditions of uncertainty, risk, and time pressure, such as urban firefighting. Verbal protocols were obtained from professional urban firefighters during simulated incidents in which they were asked to assume the role of fire ground commander. This approach afforded an opportunity to examine decision making in an ecologically valid way and to obtain a rich source of data for addressing issues of inference, expectancies, and tacit knowledge that are part of decision making in real-world settings. Keywords: Reasoning, Expertise.