Maintaining and even increasing force readiness in light of changing climate threats is a key part of meeting high-level U.S. strategic goals. In this report, researchers describe a study they conducted to develop links between climate and readiness.

Historically in the Arctic, regional tensions have been resolved before turning into major crises. With the Arctic gaining more attention in recent years, are existing governance mechanisms enough to handle future diplomatic challenges? A RAND report, Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures, suggests that there are several potential situations that could lead to conflict in the Arctic by 2030. This interactive map displays and explains some of the factors that may drive five of these scenarios.

As the Arctic Ocean transitions to a seasonally ice-free state, efforts to strengthen connections between the Arctic and the global economy are underway. After decades of use primarily as local transport arteries servicing settlements and domestic industries, Arctic shipping routes are being recast as international seaways for export of resources to world markets and as potential alternative pathways for global trade. In addition, global demand for oil, gas and minerals has driven expansion of extractive industries into increasingly accessible offshore locations. However, the degree to which reduced sea ice will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, and numerous economic and political uncertainties complicate resource extraction activities. Understanding the interrelationship of the physical environment and the development goals of state- and non-state actors is vital to determining the role of the Arctic in the future global energy mix. This dissertation seeks to articulate a synoptic picture of future human activity in the Arctic by examining a range of plausible scenarios of climate projections, transport logistics, regional politics, and extractive networks. Future marine access projections were performed by quantitative spatial analysis of climate model output and ocean bathymetry in GIS (Chapters 3 and 4). Analysis of the political and economic context of Arctic resource extraction (Chapters 2 and 5) was based on readings of scholarly literature, government reports, and newspaper articles. Climate scenarios illustrate a future of limited marine access in summer for most vessels throughout the 21st century with significantly higher navigation potential for ice-strengthened vessel types. Environmental conditions, along with national and local political structures, comprise the critical spatial context in which dense networks of state-owned and international oil and gas companies operate. While marine access is projected to increase for all climate scenarios, a wide range of futures is possible, and technology and infrastructure often figure more importantly than climatic forcing scenario alone. Therefore, a central conclusion of this dissertation is that Arctic marine access depends strongly upon capital investment in addition to geophysical considerations of sea ice.

The eight recognized Arctic states-Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States-have long cooperated in the Arctic region, even when their respective interests, especially those between Russia and the United States, have clashed on other matters. They have done so because each state perceives that it benefits from the current state of cooperation, which occurs through a set of international, regional, and subregional governance mechanisms. But conditions in the Arctic are evolving-driven by such factors as climate change, economics, and geopolitics-and thus its governance mechanisms must also evolve in order to mitigate new risks before they potentially escalate into conflict. What are these risks? How should existing governance mechanisms evolve to mitigate those risks? In this report, researchers propose and implement an adaptive, four-stage approach to identify potential Arctic conflict catalysts; determine, confirm, and prioritize the catalysts that cannot be solved through existing Arctic governance mechanisms; and identify potential governance mechanisms that can evolve to mitigate identified risks. The researchers conclude that, to decrease the risk of unraveling cooperation by 2030, Arctic stakeholders should work toward resolving gaps in Arctic governance in three ways: improving currently limited dialogue and transparency on military issues, updating and providing new capabilities to implement existing governance agreements, and enabling more inclusivity in Arctic-relevant decisionmaking without challenging the sovereignty of Arctic states.

Communities of color and low-income populations in the United States are disproportionately exposed to environmental hazards. Systemic discriminatory practices in past urban planning and housing policies, including redlining, have contributed to the development of cities and are associated with disproportionate environmental burdens in some communities to this day. To explore this issue, researchers developed the online Environmental Racism tool to enhance access to information on the unjust distribution of environmental hazards. The tool (1) visualizes the spatial variation in present-day environmental hazards and amenities within metropolitan communities across the United States and (2) compares this spatial variation to past spatial delineations of a discriminatory practice (i.e., redlining). The results of this analysis can help policymakers and community residents understand the links between historic discriminatory practices and current environmental inequities and identify hot spots of environmental burdens that can be targeted for environmental improvement efforts. In an accompanying appendix, the researchers provide further background information on the tool, including discussions of how neighborhood environments affect population health and well-being, what is already known about the disproportionate burden of environmental hazards on certain populations and communities, and how the tool can be used to view these data within the context of a national reckoning on systemic racism.