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Abstract: Background<br>As the COVID-19 pandemic strains healthcare systems worldwide, finding predictive markers of severe courses remains urgent. Most research so far was limited to selective questions hindering general assumptions for short- and long-term outcome.<br><br>Methods<br>In this prospective single-center biomarker study, 47 blood- and 21 bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples were collected from 47 COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) patients upon admission. Expression of inflammatory markers toll-like receptor 3 (TLR3), heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, leukocyte counts, procalcitonin (PCT) and carboxyhemoglobin (CO-Hb) was compared to clinical course. Clinical assessment comprised acute local organ damage, acute systemic damage, mortality and outcome after 6 months.<br><br>Results<br>PCT correlated with acute systemic damage and was the best predictor for quality of life (QoL) after 6 months (r = − 0.4647, p = 0.0338). Systemic TLR3 negatively correlated with impaired lung function (ECMO/ECLS: r = − 0.3810, p = 0.0107) and neurological short- (RASS mean: r = 0.4474, p = 0.0023) and long-term outcome (mRS after 6 m: r = − 0.3184, p = 0.0352). Systemic IL-8 correlated with impaired lung function (ECMO/ECLS: r = 0.3784, p = 0.0161) and neurological involvement (RASS mean: r = − 0.5132, p = 0.0007). IL-6 in BAL correlated better to the clinical course than systemic IL-6. Using three multivariate regression models, we describe prediction models for local and systemic damage as well as QoL. CO-Hb mean and max were associated with higher mortality.<br><br>Conclusions<br>Our predictive models using the combination of Charlson Comorbidity Index, sex, procalcitonin, systemic TLR3 expression and IL-6 and IL-8 in BAL were able to describe a broad range of clinically relevant outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19-associated ARDS. Using these models might proof useful in risk stratification and predicting disease course in the future.<br><br>Trial registration<br>The trial was registered with the German Clinical Trials Register (Trial-ID DRKS00021522, registered 22/04/2020)