This study examined the patterns, trends, and drivers of agricultural intensification and productivity growth during the recent decade (2012 - 2019) using three rounds of household data collected from four agricultural regions of Ethiopia. The descriptive results indicate a positive trend both in adoption and intensity of inputs and outputs, albeit from a low base and with considerable heterogeneity by access to information, rainfall levels and variability, labor, soil quality, and remoteness, among others. The econometric results show significant association between intensification, yield growth, household dietary diversity, and consumer durables. The results on the association between current yield levels and per capita consumption expenditures are however mixed (i.e., while an increase in cereal yield improves food consumption expenditures, an increase in cash crop yield improves only non-food consumption expenditures). In sum, while the increasing input intensification and the resulting yield gains are associated with improvements in household diets and consumer durables, it falls short to have strong impact on incomes (as measured by total consumption expenditures), indicating that additional efforts must be made to see meaningful impacts on higher order outcomes. Additional welfare improving productivity gains through increased input intensification may require investments in appropriate fertilizer blends; investments in improved seeds (to accelerate varietal turnover), ways to mitigate production (rainfall) risk, and investments to remodel Ethiopia’s extension system to provide much needed technical support to farmers on production methods.

This policy note synthesizes the key messages and lessons from existing evidence and trends in the development, deployment and scale up of ICT-enabled marketing tools. It is based on the recently published discussion paper titled “Digital tools and agricultural market transformation in Africa: Why are they not at scale yet, and what will it take to get there”. Key messages • Many digital innovations have been developed and deployed in recent years in Africa, many of which have only been implemented at pilot stages, with limited evidence of successful scaling. • There remains significant marketing and institutional constraints hindering the development of some of these digital innovations, which may further explain disparate progress in countries. • Differential access to digital innovations across genders and different typologies of households may trigger alternative variants of digital divide. • Although the landscape of digital innovations in Africa offers several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation.

The use of information and communications technologies (ICTs) to address a wide array of development issues has gained considerable attention among governments, practitioners, and researchers in recent years (Lwoga and Sangeda 2019). While early studies focused on mobile phones and text messaging, attention is quickly shifting to other media, including video. Many studies on the use of video as a medium explore how increased access and consumption of information can lead to behavior changes that ultimately result in welfare-improving outcomes. This study explores whether video-mediated extension leads to the increased, sustained uptake of productivity-enhancing agricultural technologies and practices by small-scale farmers. Over the two-year period of 2017–2018, the Government of Ethiopia and Digital Green conducted the large-scale rollout of a video-mediated extension approach. We examine the impact of this rollout on a range of outcome indicators, including whether targeting the video-mediated approach to both spouses of a household was more effective than targeting the (typically male) household head alone. Our main outcomes of interest include farmer uptake of the subject technologies and the yield gains resulting from these technologies. Our study provides insights into the mechanisms behind the observed effects and an analysis of the approach’s cost effectiveness. Our results demonstrate that the video-mediated extension approach led to increases in farmer uptake of improved agricultural technologies and practices. In the first year of the experiment, we find an overall 6 percentage point increase in technology uptake, which translates into a 10 percent increase over the mean of the control group. An analysis of uptake by type of technology shows that the video-mediated approach resulted in an increase of 13, 20, and 15 percent over control group means for row planting, precise seeding rate, and urea top/side dressing, respectively. These results endure in the second year of the experiment, pointing to farmers’ effective uptake of the technology beyond a mere trial in one production season. Upon exploring the mechanisms that explain these adoption effects, we find that the video-mediated extension approach led to an increase in extension reach, with a 35 percent increase in farmers’ attendance at extension sessions (likely due to interest in the video medium). Among farmers assigned to the video-mediated extension approach, we also find a higher level of technical understanding of focal agricultural technologies and practices. While our results suggest greater participation and knowledge gains among (typically female) spouses who also participated in the video-mediated extension approach, we do not find clear evidence that targeting both spouses led to higher rates of technology uptake.

Ethiopia hosts one of the largest extension systems in Africa, with approximately 43 development agents (DAs) per 10,000 farmers, more than 15,000 farmers training centers (FTCs) that serve as a focal point for agricultural development activities at the local level, and 25 Agricultural Technical Voca tional Education and Training (ATVET) institutes that prepare and update extension staff in both general and specialized fields of expertise (Berhane et al. 2018; ATA 2014; Davis et al. 2010). DAs report edly reach more than 75% of farm households in the country (CSA 2017), and every kebele hosts an average of three DAs, each with his or her own specialization. However, there are concerns about the quality of extension and advisory services DAs provide mainly because DAs are overburdened and under-resourced. DAs actively engage in activities that do not typically fall under the mandate of agricultural extension services, including the collection of taxes, loan repayments and mobilization of labor for public works. A related concern is the simple “technology-push” approach to agricultural intensification followed by most DAs since they do not have the time to closely know the farmers and provide a more “tailored and knowledge-driven” advisory that puts farmers’ priorities and technical capabilities at the center of DA’s effort (Berhane et al. 2018; Bachewe et al. 2017).

Several factors contribute to the low level of improved variety use in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the limited availability of seed in the volumes, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, which is partly a result of limited public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment-the Direct Seed Marketing (DSM) approach-to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. DSM was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell seed directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of DSM’s impact on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds, on-farm productivity, and market participation of smallholders. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, the study finds that DSM led to a 26 percent increase in maize yields and a 5 percent increase in the share of maize harvest sold. DSM also led to improvements in seed availability for all three of Ethiopia’s major cereals: maize, wheat, and teff. However, DSM’s effects on yields and share of harvest sold are not statistically significant for wheat and teff. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explainable by biological differences between hybrid maize and openly pollinated varieties of wheat and teff that incentivize private sector participation in maize seed markets over wheat and teff seed markets. These differences demand different policies and perhaps even institutional approaches to accelerating adoption between hybrids and OPVs.

Climate change forecasts for Ethiopia predict higher temperature and rainfall and increased variability in rainfall with periodic severe droughts and floods. The increased weather variability threatens the extent of Ethiopia’s agricultural transformation unless it is supported with improved agricultural water management such as irrigation to make smallholder farming resilient to adverse weather events. This study analyzes the role of irrigation on agricultural transformation in Ethiopia by systematically comparing households with irrigated and non-irrigated plots on key agricultural transformation and welfare indictors (i.e., intensification, commercialization, and consumption expenditures). The study used a representative data from the four main agriculturally important regions of the country and employed an endogenous switching regression approach that addresses potential biases from placement of irrigation schemes and the self-selection of farmers to adopt irrigation on their plots. This approach allows for counterfactual analysis on the effect of irrigation if it is adopted on plots or in households without current irrigation as well as the counterfactual realizations of outcome variables if irrigated plots were not irrigated or irrigating households were relying only on rainfed agriculture. The main results show a positive and significant effects of irrigation on intensification, commercialization, and household welfare. Specifically, the results show that farm households with irrigated plots (i) use more fertilizer and agrochemicals, (ii) sell sizable shares of their harvest, and (iii) spend more on food and non-food expenditures. The counterfactual analysis on what would have been the effect of irrigation on currently non-irrigated plots indicate a stronger result across our outcome indicators which further suggest the importance of expanding irrigation in accelerating agricultural transformation and welfare improvement in Ethiopia.

When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to purchase the quality they are most interested in and reward sellers accordingly. Beyond product characteristics, buyers’ use of TPC services also depends on market conditions. We study the introduction of TPC in typical smallholder-based agriculture value chains of low-income countries, where traders must aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors, and where introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders’ choice to purchase quality-certified output from farmers. Using a purposefully designed lab-in-the-field experiment with rural wheat traders in Ethiopia, we find mixed support for the model’s prediction: traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output does increase with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. It, however, does not decrease with the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We further analyze conditions where traders deviate from the theoretically optimal behavior and discuss implications for future research and public policies seeking to promote TPC in smallholder-based food value-chains.

This paper presents results from a framed field experiment in which participants make decisions about extraction of a common-pool resource, a community forest. The experiment was designed and piloted as both a research activity and an experiential learning intervention during 2017-2018 with 120 groups of resource users (split by gender) from 60 habitations in two Indian states, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan. We examine whether local beliefs and norms about community forest, gender of participants, within-experiment treatments (non-communication, communication, and optional election of institutional arrangements (rules)) and remuneration methods affect harvest behaviour and groups’ tendency to cooperate. Furthermore, we explore whether the experiment and subsequent community debriefing had learning effects. Results reveal a “weak” Nash Equilibrium in which participants harvested substantially less than the Nash prediction even in the absence of communication, a phenomenon stronger for male than female participants in both states. For male groups in both states, both communication and optional rule election are associated with lower group harvest per round, as compared to the reference non-communication game. For female groups in both states, however, communication itself did not significantly slow down resource depletion; but the introduction of optional rule election did reduce harvest amounts. For both men and women in Andhra Pradesh and men in Rajasthan, incentivized payments to individual participants significantly lowered group harvest, relative to community flat payment, suggesting a possible “crowding-in” effect on pro-social norms. Despite the generally positive memory of the activity, reported actual changes are limited. This may be due to the lack of follow-up with the communities between the experiment and the revisit. The fact that many of the communities already have a good understanding of the importance of the relationships between (not) cutting trees and the ecosystem services from forests, with rules and strong internal norms against cutting that go beyond the felling of trees in the game, may have also meant that the game did not have as much to add. Findings have methodological and practical implications for designing behavioral intervention programs to improve common-pool resource governance.

The Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) is the largest non-profit public agricultural research group globally. Recently, it has restructured itself into One-CGIAR with the intention of integrating its capabilities, knowledge, assets, people, and global presence for a new era of intercon nected and partnership-driven research towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). One-CGIAR led the development of about 30 initiatives that aimed at addressing one more of the key impact areas of SDGs. One of these initiatives is “Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclu sion and Sustainability,” referred to as rethinking markets in short. Rethinking Markets Initiative aims to provide evidence on what types of bundled innovations, incentive structures, and policies are most effec tive for creating more equitable sharing of income and employment opportunities in growing food markets, while reducing the food sector’s environmental footprint. The initiative has four work packages addressing different but interrelated issues and that are being implemented in one or more countries. Work Package 1 (WP1) is about making globally integrated value chains inclusive, efficient, and environmentally sustainable.

The emergence of rural land rental markets in Sub-Saharan Africa is recognized as a key component of the region’s ongoing economic transformation. However, the evidence base on land market participation relies on survey-derived measures, which do not always cohere when compared and triangulated, suggesting the possibility of non-trivial measurement error. We report the results of a priming and list experiments designed to shed light on a persistent mystery in rural household survey data from Africa: why there are so many fewer self-reported landlords (renters-out) than tenants (renters-in)? Our design addresses two hypotheses using experimental data from Ethiopia. First, rented-out and rented-in land may be systematically underreported because enumerators and respondents are typically primed to emphasize parcels that are actively managed/cultivated by the household. Second, rented or sharecropped-out land may be systematically underreported because of respondents’ reluctance to acknowledge an activity for which public disclosure may have negative repercussions. We address the first hypothesis with a priming experiment by exposing a random subset of respondents to a nudge that explicitly reminded them to fully account for all land, including rented/sharecropped-in and rented/sharecropped-out. We address the second hypothesis with a double-list experiment, designed to elicit true rates of land renting and sharecropping-out. We find that nudging induces about 4 percentage points increase (or 13% in relative terms) in the share of households participating in renting in or sharecropping-in practices but has negligible effects on reported rates of renting and sharecropping-out. Interestingly, our list experiment indicates much higher revealed rates of renting-out (14-15%) than is reflected in the nominal parcel-roster responses (3%). The magnitude of the latter finding fully explains the apparent difference in renting in versus renting-out rates derived from the regular parcel roster responses. These results indicate that efforts to document land market participation rate and associated impacts must overcome large systematic reporting biases.