Understanding Russia’s grand strategy can help U.S. decisionmakers assess the depth and nature of potential conflicts between Russia and the United States and avoid strategic surprise by better-anticipating Moscow’s actions and reactions. The authors of this report review Russia’s declared grand strategy, evaluate the extent to which Russian behavior is consistent with stated strategy, and outline implications for the United States.

Russia has recently carried out substantial reforms to its military forces, increasing capability in several key areas. Russia’s military has improved to the extent that it is now a reliable instrument of national power that can be used in a limited context to achieve vital national interests. Russian strategists, concerned about the capability of an advanced military adversary to carry out a large-scale conventional aerospace campaign against the Russian heartland, focus on preserving Russian influence in buffer states along its borders and on reinforcing a series of defensive bulwarks. Russian operations will show a high degree of coordination across a wide range of military units, using deception and simultaneity to achieve objectives quickly and minimize periods of vulnerability to an adversary’s most dangerous capabilities. Russian tactics will continue to heavily emphasize gaining and maintaining fire superiority over an adversary; leveraging improved ISR capabilities and a wide range of fires platforms; and using speed, surprise, and integrated combined arms in maneuver forces to disrupt and overwhelm enemies once encountered.

Russia has long used political, military, economic, informational, and clandestine tools against countries in the Black Sea region. In this report, the authors present elements of a Western strategy to counter Russian malign influence and aggression.

The authors examine areas of convergence and divergence in the Belarus-Russia relationship, particularly regarding foreign and domestic policies, military and security cooperation, and economic and defense industrial ties. They also consider the regional perspectives of Belarus’s neighbors—Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine—and how the Belarus-Russia relationship poses an evolving threat to those countries’ security.

In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation. They focus on four capability areas: long-range conventional strikes against critical military and civilian targets, electronic warfare, counterspace actions, and cyberattacks against critical infrastructure.

The authors examined potential effects that emerging technologies could have on U.S. national security policy and identified long-term effects that these technologies might have on effectiveness and stability-two major aspects of deterrent relationships. They did this by pursuing several phases of analysis. First, they selected a specific set of eight technology areas from the numerous technologies that could play a role in shaping the practice of deterrence. The researchers then took several complementary steps to assess the problem of deterrence, competitors' views of it, and possible criteria for evaluating the effects of technologies. In parallel with these research efforts, they conducted in-depth assessments of each of the eight technology areas. Finally, they employed four discrete lines of analysis-four "lenses"--To generate possible causal relationships between the eight technology areas and deterrence outcomes. This report highlights two overarching findings of this analysis. First, collections of emerging technologies-especially in the realms of information aggression and manipulation, automation (including automated decision support systems), hypersonic systems, and unmanned systems-hold dramatic implications for both the effectiveness and stability of deterrence. Second, an emerging transition to new ways of warfare, empowered by these same emerging technologies, poses more general risks to U.S. deterrent policies than does any single technology or set of technologies. This research was completed in September 2020, before the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has not been subsequently revised

Russia has consistently engaged in signaling activities toward the United States and its allies in recent years. The authors analyze this behavior to provide a better understanding of its drivers and practical guidelines for assessing future events.

To support defense planners in crafting effective deterrence strategies, RAND researchers assess the impact of U.S. forward presence, exercises and short-term deployments, and security cooperation on deterrence in Europe and the Middle East.

"The authors of this report describe strategic global trends related to Russian global influence and behavior and provide an overview and assessment of hostile activities-including information warfare, political subversion, and the use of violence or the threat of violence through proxies to undermine political order and influence vulnerable governments-that Russia has undertaken in the face of these trends. The authors find that Russia continues to engage in a wide range of hostile measures globally, but the intensity of its behavior varies in different regions and for different types of activities. The threat posed by Russia is greatest in the former Soviet states and in more fragile states afflicted by civil conflicts; with some notable exceptions, in more stable countries, Russian actions are typically limited to influence operations. The authors conclude that, overall, the West has maintained considerable pressure on Russia."--Publisher's description.

"This report analyzes trends in strategic stability between Russia and the United States, examines Russian views on the subject, and assesses current prospects for stemming the erosion of strategic stability between the two countries. Such prospects exist, but they would require a sustained effort and greater political will on both sides"--Publisher's description.