The Russian invasion of Ukraine has consequences for agricultural production and food prices in the world, the EU, and in the Netherlands. This model-based scenario study quantifies the potential medium-term effects of the war on agricultural markets (prices) and agricultural production and food consumption in the Netherlands. The scenarios focus on the possible consequences of the decline in agricultural production in the Ukraine and also on the consequences of trade sanctions against Russia, and the related higher energy prices. According to the simulations carried out the medium-term direct consequences of the Ukraine war on production and consumption volumes in the Dutch agri-food sector are limited. This is despite the disruption to prices. When the effects of energy and fertiliser price increases on agricultural production and demand worldwide are taken into account, the consequences for the agricultural markets (prices) are greater, but a larger part of the input cost increases can also be compensated by increased output prices, so that still the effects for the Dutch agro sectors remain limited. The EU policy measure that allows for temporarily taking more land into production in EU agriculture has only a marginal effect.

This policy paper discusses the expected effects and trade-offs of the EU’s Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies (parts of the Green Deal) for the EU livestock sector, with a view to the possibilities and challenges to reach the targets. Based on an assessment of the sparse current studies, it is concluded that achieving the EU’s Green Deal objectives may lead to a reduction of livestock production in the order of 10 to 15%. The short-term impacts on farm net income are diverse (gainers as well as losers) and influenced by various factors such as prices, region-specific impact of environmental constraints, changes in CAP direct payments, development of costs and subsidies compensating for costs associated with the adoption of specific measures.

Based on an analysis of existing bioeconomy modelling capacities, some gaps have been identified in existing bioeconomy modelling capacities to represent the development of bio-based materials. To address these gaps, the BioMonitor Model Toolbox has been designed. This report documents improvements made to two of the models included in the Toolbox, which focus on market developments of bio-based chemical applications and new wood-based applications. Part I of this report presents the new BioMAT model that has been developed to close the gaps on bio-based chemical applications. Part II is devoted to the EFI-GTM model that has been extended with new wood-based products and updated to capture structural changes in markets of traditional wood products.

In this report we present an Impact Assessment on six objectives of the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies with respect to reduction of pesticide use and risk, reduction of nutrient losses, increase of the area in the EU under organic production and increase of the amount of agricultural land under high-diversity landscape features. Four scenarios have been developed for which the impacts have been assessed: (1) reduction of use and risk of pesticides, (2) reduction of use and losses of nutrients, (3) increase of area under organic production and (4) a combination of the Scenarios 1 and 2 extended with the added objective to have more land with high-diversity landscape features. The impact assessment has been executed at farm level, covering ten crops and seven case countries across the EU. The results of the case studies have been used to explore the consequences of these objectives for the production volume of the crops in the EU, market prices, the international trade and indirect land use.

In deze studie zijn beleidsscenario’s opgesteld die inzicht geven in de potentie voor vermindering van broeikasgasemissies uit de landbouw- en landgebruik-sector in 2035. De vier scenario’s zijn: 1) referentie (KEV 2022), 2) alleen overheidssturing, pessimistisch, 3) alleen overheidssturing, optimistisch en 4) Scenario 3 + aanvullende sturing vanuit private sector. Voor elk beleidsscenario is een inschatting gemaakt van de implementatie van klimaatmitigatie-maatregelen. De resultaten laten zien dat emissies vanuit landbouw en landgebruik in 2035 naar verwachting met 14% (Scenario 2) tot 39% (Scenario 4) kunnen dalen t.o.v. van het referentiescenario. De economische analyse laat zien dat het verlies aan netto toegevoegde waarde groter is bij de aanleverende en verwerkende industrie dan bij de primaire landbouwsector. De doorgerekende scenario’s leveren ook baten op, met name vermeden milieuschade (1,6 tot 2,8 miljard euro per jaar). De netto kosten van de maatregelen (5,4 tot 8,5 miljard euro per jaar) wegen echter niet op tegen de netto baten van vermeden milieuschade.

Aanpassing van het Nederlandse veevoer aan kringloopeisen ('Geen soja' in mengvoer of 'Alleen gebruik van Europese grondstoffen') leidt bij constante grondstofprijzen tot prijsstijgingen van krachtvoer. Afhankelijk van het scenario en de voersoort variëren die van 0% tot 14%. Als Nederland meer grondstoffen uit Europa gaat betrekken, worden extra prijsstijgingen verwacht voor oliezaadschroot en overige eiwithoudende grondstoffen. Door de grote importafhankelijkheid van eiwitrijke grondstoffen is het intensieve veehouderijcomplex gevoeliger voor prijsstijgingen dan het grondgebonden veehouderijcomplex.